As of Sunday afternoon, data provided by the University of Florida’s Election Lab shows 41.2 million voted by mail or early in person in the vast majority of states, with only a few states not reporting data.

Compared with four years ago, Republicans are returning more mail-in ballots and voting early in-person. Party affiliation does not mean that voters cast ballot for their party’s nominated candidate, meaning there is no way to definitively know what presidential candidate is ahead.

In states that report votes by party, registered Democrats have a 3.8 percent lead over registered Republicans, with 40 percent to 36.2 percent, respectively. Independent or minor party voters make up about 23.8 percent of the remainder, according to data provided by the lab.

Republicans have a 9-point advantage over Democrats during in-person early voting, while Democrats have a more than 11-point lead over Republicans for mail-in ballot returns, the data show.

As of Oct. 25, only 24.5 percent of mail-in ballots returned were from Republicans, while about 52.3 percent of Democrats did so, according to the Election Lab. Some 22.6 percent of returned mail ballots were from independents or those registered with minor parties.

Republicans in 2020 also had a smaller lead voting in-person early, the data show. At the time, some 40.2 percent of Republicans voted in-person early, while 37.5 percent were Democrats.

States that have reported no data so far include New York, Alabama, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma.

Swing-State Breakdown

In Nevada, Republicans have a 5.1 percent early voting lead—or 31,000 votes—over Democrats, the Election Lab’s data show. That state was called for President Joe Biden over Trump in 2020.

Meanwhile, Republicans have a 6.9-percent advantage over Democrats in Arizona, a state that only reports mail-in ballots. Biden was also certified the victor in Arizona by a slim, 10,000-vote margin four years ago.

Voting by mail is extremely popular in Arizona, with nearly 90 percent of voters having cast their ballots early, most by mail, in 2020. Election officials in Arizona can begin processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, but results cannot be released until one hour after polls close.

Late last week, Republicans pulled ahead in North Carolina, a state won by former President Donald Trump in 2020. By Sunday, the lead increased marginally to about 1.1 percent, or about 30,000 votes, over Democrats, data show.

Earlier this month, Trump visited areas in North Carolina that were ravaged by Hurricane Helene, saying that some Americans in the region “felt helpless and abandoned and left behind by their government.”

“In North Carolina’s hour of desperation, the American people answered the call much more so than your federal government,” he said.

And in mid-October, Vice President Kamala Harris held a rally in Greenville, North Carolina, and told a crowd that she wants to “fight for the ideals of our country and to fight to realize the promise of America.”

Pennsylvania has only reported mail-in ballots as of Oct. 27, showing that Democrats have taken a more than 330,000-vote lead over Republicans. However, Democrats’ lead has narrowed in recent days, down about 19,000 votes since Oct. 24, data show.

Pennsylvania did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day, as officials sifted through a huge backlog of mail ballots. The state is among only a handful that do not permit election workers to process or tabulate mail ballots until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, which means it will likely again take days before the outcome is known.

Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin do not report party affiliation via the Election Lab website.

Reuters contributed to this report.

The court’s decision comes after officials discovered that a database error allowed people who had not provided proof of citizenship, per a 2004 ballot initiative, to vote the full ballot for nearly 20 years.

Neither the county recorder nor the state’s top election official suspected the affected voters were not U.S. citizens. However, they disagreed on what status the voters should hold.

Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, a Republican, filed an emergency petition on Sept. 17 asking the state Supreme Court to weigh in.

Richer challenged guidance from Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, a Democrat, regarding voters who may not have provided documentary proof of citizenship during registration.

The state Supreme Court found in favor of Fontes, saying that Richer did not demonstrate that county recorders have statutory authority to remove the affected voters from being able to cast ballots in the 2024 election for federal offices and matters on a state ballot.

Arizona residents have been required to provide documentary proof of citizenship to vote in elections since voters approved Proposition 200 in 2004. This rule, unique to Arizona, came into effect in 2005.

Voters are required to provide a driver’s license or tribal ID number or attach a copy of a birth certificate, passport, or naturalization documents in order to cast ballots in local and state races. Driver’s licenses issued after Oct. 1, 1996, are valid.

However, state officials said that an error between the state’s voter registration database and the Motor Vehicle Division meant that some 97,928 voters who held licenses from before Oct. 1, 1996, were marked as full-ballot voters.

At around 2.5 percent of all registered voters, this could tip the scales in hotly contested state legislature races, where Republicans hold a slim majority over Democrats. It could also impact ballot initiatives.

State election officials said nearly 98,000 voters’ Arizona driver’s licenses were incorrectly recorded with an issue date after the cutoff on Oct. 1, 1996. This happened because those voters received a duplicate or updated license that listed its issue date as the duplicate or updated date rather than the original date of issue.

Richer argued that the affected voters should be restricted to federal-only ballots until they provide documented proof of citizenship, in accordance with Proposition 200. Fontes, however, directed county recorders to take no action, stating the voters should be permitted to vote in all elections. Richer argued Fontes ignored state law by doing so.

Under Arizona law, once a voter’s application is accepted, it cannot be revoked unless the recorder has evidence that the individual is not a U.S. citizen, the justices said.

The justices said county officials lack the authority to change the voters’ status because they registered long ago and attested under penalty of law to be U.S. citizens. Furthermore, the voters aren’t at fault for the database error, according to the ruling.

The court also noted the close proximity to the November election and cautioned against changing election procedures shortly before voting begins, saying the time for county officials to reject the voters’ registrations has passed.

“We are unwilling on these facts to disenfranchise voters en masse from participating in state contests,” Chief Justice Ann Scott Timmer said in the ruling.

The ruling was welcomed by both Richer and Fontes.

Richer took to social media to thank the court for quickly reviewing the case and Fontes for partnering with him to address the error.

“The 100k registrants will continue to vote a full ballot this election. Thank God,” Richer wrote on X. “Thank you Arizona Supreme Court for your extremely quick and professional review of this matter. Thank you [Fontes] for your partnership on this.”

Fontes thanked Richer and welcomed the win.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The poll was conducted between Aug. 12-16, surveying 1,003 registered voters in Arizona and yielding a 3.09% margin of error.

“For most of the election season, inflation, immigration, and abortion have been the top issues,” reads a report on the poll. “That’s still true – but a new issue, affordable housing, has officially cemented its status as a top-tier issue for Arizona voters. And, affordable housing’s importance is comparable to the other top issues – it’s high.”

However, neither Republicans nor Democrats have made affordable housing a major campaign point.

“Immigration, abortion, inflation – when these issues come up, the parties know what they’re talking about,” said David Byler, NPI chief of research. “And voters know who they trust. Housing is a different animal. Housing costs are just too high, and it’s becoming a bipartisan concern.”

According to a housing affordability study conducted by the University of Arizona, more than 30% of Arizonans are facing a housing burden, meaning that their housing costs consume more than 30% of their income.

“Households that are cost burdened are more likely to struggle to pay for other basic needs such as healthcare, childcare, transportation, and even food,” reads the study. There is a shortage of 133,684 affordable homes for Arizonans.

Low income households are not the only ones facing cost burdens, data shows that 37% of households that have “middle income” are still burdened when it comes to housing costs.

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs has taken steps to help Arizonans with housing issues including a first-time home ownership assistance program, dedicating $13 million to help individuals with a down payment on a home.

“As someone who has struggled to make mortgage payments myself, I know how owning a home can help build a strong financial foundation and anchor families to the communities they love,” Hobbs said in an April 12 statement. “This new program will offer the freedom and independence that comes with homeownership that has been eluding many deserving Arizonans across the state.”

However, Arizonans are still struggling, making housing affordability a major issue that candidates can use to win the swing state.

“This is a rare opportunity for both parties – an important issue where neither side has a pre-existing advantage or even a defined message,” Byler said. “The party that figures out how to win on housing will benefit hugely.”